By Gerry R. Partido
Variety News Staff

DID the U.S. make the right decision in deciding not to homeport a carrier group on Guam?
Almost coming simultaneously as the announcement made by the Navy, China proclaimed that it is pushing ahead with construction of a mega-sized nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
The communist country is also reportedly planning to build a 48,000-ton non-nuclear-powered carrier.
Once the proposed Chinese carriers are deployed, analysts say the radius of the Chinese Navy’s range is expected to reach Guam.
The Chinese are boasting that when its nuclear-powered carrier is finished, China will own an aircraft carrier which would be on par with the U.S. 97,000-ton atomic-powered carrier USS Ronald Reagan.
Even more disturbing is the report that China is now planning a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines that could fire nuclear missiles capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.
These submarines can also easily reach Guam, sinking U.S. ships, attacking Guam’s port, and even laying mines, and landing covert raiding parties.
Remember, the potential for conflict between the Chinese and American navies almost became a reality last October when the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier, supported by an attack submarine and anti-submarine helicopters, was startled — and some say embarrassed — by the sudden appearance of a Chinese Song-class submarine.
The Chinese submarine, apparently practicing anti-carrier warfare, had gone undetected until it surfaced five miles away — putting the American vessel within range of its Russian-made, wake-homing torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles.
Admiral William Fallon, then the head of U.S. Pacific Command, who has now been promoted to take charge of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, warned that the incident “could have escalated into something that was very unforeseen.”
According to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, China is intent on building five strategic nuclear-missile boats, equipped with 5,000-mile range JL-2 missiles, which will give it an arsenal of 60 strategic nuclear missiles at sea, each with multiple warheads.
The first will go to sea next year, and the first two of a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines will enter service this year.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s recent Military Power Report on China also concluded that the communist country was working on a combat air wing for a future aircraft carrier, capable of projecting power far into the Pacific.
On Guam, the U.S. only has two Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, although a third is due to arrive later this year.
Guam’s Apra Harbor is also under refurbishment to accommodate Trident nuclear subs and accommodate visiting aircraft carriers.
However, the build-up of U.S. Navy forces on Guam may not deter the Chinese and only make Guam a “strategic first strike” target of the Chinese in the event of war.
For make no mistake, the Chinese have not given up on taking back Taiwan militarily. And as its military prowess grows, it’s just a matter of when, not if, China initiates hostilities.
Homeporting a carrier group on Guam may have been just what was needed to permanently discourage the Chinese from launching any military adventure.
But with Guam losing out on a carrier, the Chinese may just be emboldened to strike.
For feedback and news tips e-mail gerry@mvguam.com