By Gerardo R. Partido
Variety News Staff

THE island’s tourism industry hasn’t been faring well the past couple of months and the forecast for the remainder of the year may continue to be dim.
This was disclosed by Guam Visitors Bureau general manager Gerry Perez during the bureau’s quarterly membership meeting held yesterday at the Outrigger.
Despite the general decline in tourism numbers, Perez said Guam’s market share has been holding up.
“So this is a half-full or half-empty glass situation. It depends on how one looks at it,” Perez said.
According to GVB, the island still has to match the peak visitor arrival number set in 1997. At present, Perez said Guam has only managed to capture 88 percent of the total 1997 arrival figure.
He said the forecast for the third and fourth quarter of this year is not too bright because tour package prices continue to be up and unaffordable for many Japanese.
Another factor cited by Perez was the increased fuel charge of airlines that has added to the costs of tour packages.
“In addition, the Japanese are more price sensitive because many have lower disposable income,” Perez said.
The GVB chief also mentioned the “freeter” phenomenon, referring to a relaxation of the previously rigid Japanese work ethic.
“A number of younger Japanese now are content to just work for a while and then stop. This makes for lower disposable income,” Perez explained.
Earlier, travel agents complained that they are having a hard time selling Guam to their customers. The agents complained about the weakened yen, a reduction in airline commissions, and an increase in Transportation Security Administration fees.
According to travel agent members of the Japan Guam Tourism Council, Guam is still able to generate a substantial volume of visitors but the low cost tours have cut into their profit margins.
In the past, travel agents have also been able to count on local income from land operations but they now say that land operation revenues have declined significantly.
The very low tour pricing structure for Guam has marginalized or eliminated altogether the profits of the agencies.
This has been exacerbated by higher room rates, which may serve as a disincentive for Japanese travelers, and a restructuring in shopping commissions.
The January to March 2007 period, in particular, did not have the market shift benefits caused by the tsunami aftermath and the cooling of relations between Japan and China.
These factors caused many Japanese travelers last year to pick Guam over China and other popular Southeast Asian destinations like Thailand.
But this year, GVB said Thailand’s tourism industry has recovered dramatically, China and Korea have become resurgent, and new destinations have become more aggressive.