DR. Ron McNinch, famed UOG pollster, came on the Newstalk K-57 Breakfast Show, the only morning show in town, and told fellow Rotarian Ray Gibson on Jan. 10 that he was holding a seminar of sorts on the election of ’06 at the university later that day. And I saw Frank Blas Aguon Jr. on ABC 17 saying something about the 18- and 25-year-old voting bloc, if there is one, upon attending that get-together.
One of the things that stood out in Dr. McNinch’s presentation at least what he said to Gibson, and to his credit which he said also prior to the elections, was that there was uncertainty due to the litigation surrounding the primary election results. He, McNinch, also said that there was water building up in the dam and that there was a political tsunami, so to speak, that occurred on election day (and night). Another thing he said on election night on KUAM was “this is the election when every vote will count.”
The inferences that I can draw are as follows: Because of the uncertainty factor, people are less likely to vote or if they do vote they might be confused, paranoid or delusional. This might explain the lowest turnout ever for a gubernatorial election (71 percent), not the vote suppression that apparently went on, and might also help explain the overvotes. You know, people are afraid to look the governor in the eye and tell him that they didn’t vote for him so they voted for both candidates.
I think if the feds really “lived” on Guam, they would understand the FEAR FACTOR, like in “MISSISSIPPI BURNING.” So there is definitely a case for appeal. But it does not explain the political tsunami for the incumbent. When I saw the last Merrill poll, 19 percent were undecided.
Now, there have never been an election with that many a percentage undecided, so I immediately added that number to the incumbent (for a worst-case scenario) and the governor came out a point ahead which is where the results stood on election night.
So it is not the Jay Merrill was a bad pollster but more so, a concerted effort by the losers in the primary to go to the “highest bidder,” (or “political tsunami” if you prefer) while remaining anonymous, silent because if they came out publicly for Camacho like ’02, they would be characterized as selling out once again. And doom another Gutierrez run in 2010.
Lastly, the smaller samples that UOG pollster McNinch did early on after the primary showed Underwood with 50 percent, Camacho with 43 percent, and a 7 percent undecided, making the race dead heat. So if that poll was accurate, then there was no water in the dam that built up that broke on election day. That “water was always there.” I would have characterized it more as a mirage than an oasis.

MATT PHILIPS
Mangilao, Guam