By Emmanuel T. Erediano
Variety News Staff

MANAGAHA will not look the same as it does now in 10 years.
This is according to the findings of experts from the University of Hawaii’s Department of Geology and Geophysics who predicted a 95 percent erosion hazard on one side of the tourist spot and accretion on another side.
The geologists led by Dr. Chip Fletcher were contracted by Coastal Resource Management to investigate the movement that occasionally occures on Managaha, which CRM director John Joyner considers a major issue since the island along with the lagoon “is one of CNMI’s primary economic components.”
With Fletcher were Ayesha Genz, Matthew Barbee and Matthew Dyer.
During the presentation on Friday, Fletcher discussed the possible destruction of the vegetation on the eroding side which is a habitat for threatened bird species like the shearwater, and the visual impact that may lessen the beauty of the island.
The experts attributed the movement of the island to erosion and accretion of sand.
Their study shows that while a huge amount of sand on the south eastern side of the island — the part facing Garapan — is eroding, sand is accreting at the northwest side — the beach beside the dock usually frequented by tourists.
They showed a series of pictures of Managaha taken from 1945 to the present.
With the use of line graphs and aerial photographs, the experts analyzed the extent of the erosion and accretion.
The erosion, according to the experts, occurred faster from 1985 to 1986 which caused “dramatic accretions on certain transects in the northwest side from 1986 to 1996.”
The erosion and accretion of sand are occurring naturally and are caused by waves and strong current.
The study shows that there is a high rate of water movement in the southeast and low movement in the northeast.
But it appears that humans have also done something that increased the rate of erosion, they said.
Their study, Fletcher said, shows that strong erosion is related to the removal of debris from the southeast of the island.
CRM records show that during World War II, a barge was wrecked on the southern side of the island.
In 1996, to prevent beachgoers from getting injured, CRM and the Marianas Visitors Authority requested the removal of the wreckage.
CRM later saw evidence of erosion on that side.
Some believe that the dredging southeast of the island may have had something to do with the erosion on Managaha but Fletcher said he was having a “hard time believing it is related.”
Fletcher came up with the following proposals:
• Do nothing, as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recommended in 2001, suggesting that the only action that can be taken is to continue monitoring the island and its shoreline, adjust human behavior and plan for the future shoreline. This costs less as concerned agencies will just watch and learn before taking any action.
• Build an elevated wooden walkway for visitors immediately off the shoreline. This will allow people to experience the eroding side of the island without affecting the surface. The walkway will keep people off the eroding side and the nesting area.
• Move sand from accreting side to eroding side, which could be expensive but offers a good chance of reducing the erosion, thus maintaining the environment.