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IT was certainly nice to read
the many different articles now being written supporting the idea that
we should at least investigate the new nuclear technology as a possible
solution for the long term energy requirements of the CNMI. And I am very
happy to see the questions you have asked. Im sure that many others
also have legitimate questions that need to be answered including
myself.
After all, Im no nuclear expert either but I do read published
references and listen to those who are recognized in the field as knowing
what they are talking about. Then, try to pass it along for everyone to
see and ask their own questions.
Ill try to answer what I can (by citing the lit I have read) and
for those others, well seek the answers from those who do know.
I have recently opened a dialogue with Dr. Andrew Kadak. He is a leading
nuclear physicist and head of the nuclear technology department at M.I.T.
and also with Ms. Anne Lavergeon, the CEO of AREVA, Frances equivalent
to the U. S. NRC; with its Mr. Robert Price, also, fortunately for me,
in our loop. There are many others as well.
Anyway, to get to the point: Where can we see one of them in operation?
Unfortunately, the technology is so new that there is not one currently
operating in the field. There are several, however, in laboratory
settings (full scale dudes) that, if the time comes, we will be able to
visit and some of them have been around for more than 5 years.
(Burns and Roe, Toshiba, Purple Mountain, Westinghouse, GE, Uranium Information
Centre, Ltd. and General Atomics).
What are the actual audited operating expenses and resultant kwh?
Purple Mountain Ventures and Burns and Roe have sent me a spread sheet
of their construction and operating costs and it contains
contingencies for 30 percent cost overruns. But primarily, the expenses
are extrapolated from previously known expenses resultant from other,
more primitive installations. This was difficult, since many of those
previous expenses have been eliminated by the newer technology. For instance,
personnel costs are one factor. It used to require an entire team of highly
skilled and trained (and highly paid) operators now the new power
supply module is being certified for UNATTENDED operation in at least
one design which means the entire plant will be run and maintained
with just about the same complement as our current facility (to run the
rotating equipment). As you may know, the kwh charge to the household
is based on cost of operation and FUEL is the biggie here. It is known
that the fuel for the new plant based on its chemical life
expectancy calculated by the laws of physics is something like 2 to 3
mils per kwh a really low cost for fuel, so the resultant kwh to
the home is also much lower. (Same references as above)
Additionally, the cost of the physical facility itself has been reduced
significantly as there are no longer requirements for huge containment
and control units or cooling and emission towers. Even the NRC regulatory
requirements (previously a large cost factor) have been reduced to an
insignificant figure.
Has the module ever been run out and exchanged.? Simple answer:
No. The technology just isnt old enough for that. But we do know
exactly what a new one costs (including the labor to do it and disposal
of the old one). And the current estimate for unplugging
and putting in the new one is estimated at (in the case of Hyperion rector)
$3.866 million; and thats for a module that will last between 5
and 8 years. The same cost for oil for that period (for the same mega
wattage) would be about $100 million at current prices.
What if the company goes out of business? Well, I guess anything
is possible, but the companies were talking to at present have been
around for a very long long time and are multi-billion dollar corporations.
I sort of doubt this one will be important. There is one company involved
in the mix that I am not yet permitted to expose but they are a
well known name and worth a hundred billion dollars or so.
What if we build it and the darned thing just doesnt work...as
claimed? That would be a good question for the engineers and DOE
and NRC. But my own opinion is that it would never be built if there wasnt
a great deal of security and assurance in its capability to operate as
planned.
I also agree with you that coal IS an alternative that should be looked
at, primarily because it really is a cheap fuel and is nearby and relatively
quick to install. My only problem with coal (a fossil fuel) is the apparently
unsolvable greenhouse emissions from its use. Global warming is a real
problem, getting worse, and there are regulations in the offing that may
make such emission controls prohibitive in cost.
To answer your final question; Would Dr. Arkle mind if they built
it next door? NOT AT ALL! Thats based on my understanding
of published literature since February of 2006. I, too, have some questions
for the real experts and we ARE in the process of getting some
of these people here by this summer.
Such a plant would be utterly quite, small (less than ? acre) and with
no emissions whatsoever. Even the utility lines emanating from it would
be underground to some extent as would be the fuel module itself. Who
could ask for a better neighbor?
DR. THOMAS D. ARKLE JR.
San Jose, Tinian
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