Marianas Variety

Last updateWed, 18 Sep 2019 12am







    Tuesday, September 17, 2019-6:41:03P.M.






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Monsoon will continue to strengthen across Micronesia

(NOAA-Weather-Ready Nation) — Weather conditions across the region have become active in recent days and we expect this trend to continue this week.

The monsoon trough has been in place near or over the Marianas for several days with an embedded weak circulation, JTWC Invest Area 95W, found within the trough southeast of Guam. South of the trough, the monsoon has been strengthening over Chuuk and Yap States, and Palau.

Forecast models indicate 95W will gradually develop — but after it passed south of Guam Sunday evening or on Monday. In the meantime, the monsoon will continue to strengthen across Micronesia, sustaining scattered to numerous showers, locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, breezy winds and building seas and surf. Seas and surf will likely become hazardous for small craft across western Micronesia as a result.

“We have issued a Special Weather Statement for Yap and Chuuk to provide more details on weather conditions there. This will likely be updated later today [Sunday] to include Palau.”

For Guam and the CNMI, there remains some uncertainty for the onset of the widespread showers. A Hydrologic Outlook (text bulletin stating the potential for heavy rains and flooding in the coming days) remains in effect due to the potential for significant rainfall across the region this week. Forecast models show a spread of estimated rainfall accumulations for the next 5 to 10 days with a surge of showers possible midweek, and a second surge possible later this coming weekend. Keep in mind, this is an outlook and conditions could change in the next few days with rainfall expectations increasing or decreasing, depending on the evolution of 95W. 

What should you do?

Be wary of low-lying, poor-drainage and flood-prone areas. Check storm drains in your area to make sure they are not clogged. Heavy showers can cause standing water to rise quickly. If you are near rivers and streams — or plan to hike, please be alert of your surroundings. Water levels can rise rapidly causing strong currents in a flash. For mariners across Micronesia: winds, seas and surf will build the next few days, likely becoming hazardous for the operation of small craft. Consider delaying inter-island travel until conditions improve.

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