The CNMI economy has been in a slump since 1998 and we’re already scraping the bottom of the barrel. I am also running out of clichés but surely this slow-motion misery will end. Soon.
The boom of the late 1980s and the mid 1990s were driven by factors that no longer exist: loaded Japanese investors, cheap foreign labor and garment quotas. The booms were like fancy fireworks: brilliant, spectacular, fleeting.
But the CNMI government continues to wait for another economic miracle. This time, casinos on Rota or Saipan. Marines on Tinian. Marijuana for everyone. The CNMI is a gambler down to his last chip but he believes that a single throw of the dice can change everything for the better.
No one wants to do the hard work of reassessing the government’s functions, programs and obligations while evaluating the local economy’s prospects based on the reality on the ground.
The government is still operating as if the economy can still afford extravagance. Meanwhile, we wait. The governor is waiting for the U.S. Republicans to re-capture the U.S. Congress and allow the CNMI to regain control over its immigration and minimum wage. Tinian is waiting for Futenma. Rota is waiting for a casino. On Capital Hill, lawmakers are waiting for the governor’s instructions. They are also waiting for someone else to make the tough decisions regarding the budget. CUC is waiting for government agencies to pay their utility bills so it can buy fuel. The Retirement Fund officials are waiting for a bond flotation. Retirees are waiting for this bankrupt government to prioritize their pensions. Local residents are waiting for an end to these nasty austerity threats.
They are waiting for their overdue promotions and pay increases. Their government is waiting for more federal handouts and other new sources of funding. Guest workers are waiting for improved status. They thought it would happen last May. But now they believe that there will be salvation this September. A lot of them no longer have jobs, but they have umbrella permits. They are either dipping into their life savings or getting support from relatives or friends. Improved status will happen soon, they assure each other. No one can explain how, or even why, but they believe it will happen. Soon.
There is no silver bullet, no cure-all, no quick-fix. The CNMI’s economic landscape has already changed. It can no longer attract 700,000 tourists a year. The private sector can no longer bring in cheap foreign workers. The CNMI government can no longer hire more voters for well-paid, non-essential jobs. Real investors with real money will think long and hard before they even consider opening a casino in the CNMI, knowing that it will take years before such a venture can be profitable, if at all. The U.S. wants Futenma relocated, but to another area in Okinawa. More and more locals and guest workers are leaving the islands, which will further shrink the private sector’s consumer base.
Clearly, the CNMI must make painful but necessary adjustments.
But that means we have to act; we have to do something.
Why not wait?
In Beckett’s “Waiting for Godot,” one of the most influential, most famous and most enduring plays of the previous century, the two main characters Vladimir and Estragon are waiting eagerly for the arrival of someone named Godot. For if Godot shows up, “we’ll be saved.” While waiting, they eat, sleep, talk, argue, sing, play games, exercise, swap hats and even contemplate suicide. They believe there is nothing else to be done. At the end of the play, a boy tells them that Godot “won’t come this evening.” Tomorrow perhaps. So they decide to leave.
VLADIMIR: Well? Shall we go?
ESTRAGON: Yes, let’s go.
They do not move.
Curtain.
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