WE all spotted a genuine policy contradiction: CNMI actively promotes tourism (its economic lifeline), yet simultaneously debating whether to relax or restrict Chinese visa policy — a move that directly affects its second largest pre-pandemic tourist source market. Chinese arrivals grew from 20,000 in 2009 to over 250,000 annually by 2016 (40–50% of all tourists).
Korean and Japanese arrivals are back but not enough.
The core issue is CNMI economic need vs. federal control & security.
CNMI has a unique U.S. federal exemption allowing Chinese citizens to enter without a U.S. visa.
CNMI economy is overwhelmingly dependent on tourism.
• Tourism directly accounts for over 50% of GDP and a similar share of formal employment.
• The main islands (Saipan, Tinian, Rota) have few other exports; garment manufacturing collapsed decades ago, and agriculture is minimal.
• Visitor arrivals in pre-Covid years (2016–2019) hovered around 500,000–600,000 annually, mostly from East Asia. That’s a huge number for a population of only 55,000.
• Government revenue: CNMI has no broad-based income tax. Its largest local revenue source is the Hotel Occupancy Tax (HOT) and other tourism-related fees. Without tourists, the government would default on obligations.
• Employment: Most locals work directly or indirectly in tourism (hotels, restaurants, tour boats, car rentals).
• U.S. federal ties: CNMI receives some federal aid, but not nearly enough to replace tourism dollars. Unlike Guam (which has a large U.S. military presence), CNMI has no major economic alternative.
For DHS, however:
• Security cannot be compromised. DHS insists on full visa screening for all Chinese entrants anywhere in the U.S. (including CNMI).
• Human trafficking & illegal work. Some Chinese entered on the waiver and stayed to work illegally in CNMI’s construction or service sectors. A visa requirement creates a paper trail.
• U.S.-China tensions. Since 2019, bilateral relations have worsened. Granting China a special travel privilege to a U.S. territory is politically untenable.
So why promote tourism while debating Chinese visa policy? Because CNMI needs both.
CNMI debates visa policy and explore options: local government wants to restore the pre-2019 visa waiver — or at least create a simpler alternative.
The debate is not a genuine policy choice — it is a government policy move, driven by desperation. CNMI business leaders know they have no power to change federal visa rules. Meanwhile, they also fear that if a new wave of Chinese tourists arrived without proper screening, a single overstay or security incident could trigger even harsher federal crackdowns.
But there are opportunities to reset dialogue, manage tensions, and identify areas for cooperation.
According to the BBC, President Donald J. Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. Executives from some of American’s biggest companies —including Boeing, Citigroup and Qualcomm — are expected to travel with Trump.
High-level visits between the U.S. and China have often served as opportunities to reset dialogue, manage tensions, and identify areas for cooperation such as trade, climate, or global issues.
The business community welcomes this visit, and is hoping that both sides will continue building on this momentum — reducing uncertainties, lowering barriers, and fostering a more predictable environment for economic growth.
BETTY BAI
Power Young Publishing
Saipan Chinese News
