By Walter Ulloa
For Variety
HAGÅTÑA (The Guam Daily Post) — Guam had until sunset Sunday to get into a safe shelter, as Super Typhoon Bavi closed in on the Marianas with a forecast track that could bring the storm’s most violent winds directly over Rota by Monday morning.
The National Weather Service said Bavi weakened slightly overnight to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, down from the Category 5 intensity forecast a day earlier. Forecasters expect the storm to strengthen again over the next 24 hours, with winds climbing to around 160 mph before it reaches the islands.
As of the 7 a.m. advisory on Sunday, Bavi’s center was about 300 miles east of Guam and 280 miles east-southeast of Saipan, moving west at 7 mph. The weather service said the storm should turn toward the west-northwest and pick up forward speed through Monday, a path that would carry it near Rota by Monday morning.
A typhoon warning remains posted for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, meaning winds of 74 mph or stronger are expected within 24 hours. A tropical storm warning now covers Alamagan, while Pagan and Agrihan remain under a tropical storm watch.
The Office of the Governor said residents should be in a safe location by sunset Sunday, warning that Bavi could bring sustained winds peaking near 175 mph as it approaches. Guam entered Condition of Readiness 2 at 10 p.m. Saturday, and typhoon shelters opened at 7 a.m. Sunday at five elementary schools: Talofofo for southern villages, Ordot for central villages, and Astumbo, Machananao and Maria A. Ulloa for northern villages, according to the governor’s office.
Joint Information Center Release No. 5 said Guam should expect sustained tropical storm force winds beginning this afternoon, with sustained winds during the storm’s passage likely in the 60 to 80 mph range and gusts up to 100 mph. Any southward shift in the track could bring stronger winds to the island, the release said. Homes with poorly built metal roofs face substantial damage and could become uninhabitable, and loose outdoor items are expected to turn into projectiles, adding to the risk of damage and injury.
Rota faces the greatest threat if Bavi’s center passes directly over the island, with the weather service warning of potentially catastrophic winds exceeding 150 mph there Monday.
Flooding is also a growing concern. A flood watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan through late Tuesday night, with satellite estimates showing 12 to 20 inches of rain possible as Bavi’s rain bands move through, raising the risk of flash flooding and mudslides on steeper terrain.
A high surf advisory remains posted through Thursday afternoon, with breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet expected in the surf zone. A coastal flood watch is also in effect through Wednesday afternoon, with forecasters warning of coastal inundation of up to 12 feet near the storm’s center, numerous road closures and significant shoreline erosion. Surf could build to 35 feet near Rota and 30 feet elsewhere Monday morning, easing on the east side of the islands but building along west facing shores once Bavi moves past by Tuesday.
Residents headed to a shelter are asked to bring a seven-day supply of food and water, bedding, hygiene items, medications and, for families with young children, diapers, formula and baby food. A valid photo ID and important documents, including birth certificates and immunization records, are also required. Registration is mandatory upon arrival, children must stay under parental supervision, and alcohol, drugs, weapons, pets and cooking devices are not allowed inside the shelters. Residents needing a ride to a shelter can contact their village mayor’s office to arrange transportation.
Once Guam moves into COR 2, the Southern Regional Health Center will open to handle medical emergencies for southern villages, while Guam Memorial Hospital and Guam Regional Medical City will serve central and northern residents, the governor’s office said.
The governor’s office also urged residents to stay out of the water given already hazardous surf, and to run generators only outdoors and away from windows, doors and vents to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
Anyone struggling emotionally before, during or after the storm can reach the Guam Behavioral Health and Wellness Center’s Suicide and Crisis Lifeline by calling or texting 988, or by chatting online at 988lifeline.org.
Forecasters cautioned that Bavi’s track could still shift closer to Guam or closer to Tinian in the next 24 hours, and urged residents not to wait to finish storm preparations.
Updates are available at weather.gov/gum and through Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense.
