MANILA (Pacnews) — The economies of the Pacific countries are forecast to grow by 1.9 percent in 2002 and to 2.6 percent in 2003, compared to a 0.8 percent contraction in 2001, according to its Asian Development Outlook 2002 report.
The prospects for economic growth in the Pacific, according to the bank, are subdued by structural problems, including depletion of natural resources, continued potential for civil unrest and the dominant economic role of the public sector.
Papua New Guinea will emerge from recession into low growth due to modest improvements in agriculture. PNG gross domestic product growth is projected to be 1.2 percent in 2002 and 1.8 percent in 2003. In 2001, PNG underwent a second year of contraction because of civil unrest and weakened commodity exports.
Driven by increased tourism and broad based agriculture, economic growth is likely to strengthen in Fiji with GDP growth projected to pick up to 3.5 percent in 2002 and 4.7 percent in 2003. In 2001, the economy rebounded to GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2001 after a political crisis induced a contraction of 2.8 percent the previous year.
Samoa experienced double-digit growth in 2001 due to reforms introduced in the 1990s. Samoa’s GDP is seen growing by 5 percent in both 2002 and 2003.
The Solomon Islands and Vanuatu both suffered negative growth in 2001, the former because of ethnic unrest and the latter because of cyclone damage to agricultural production. The Solomon Islands’ GDP is projected to contract by 5 percent in 2002, but recover to zero growth in 2003. Vanuatu will likely post growth of 0.7 percent in 2002 and 1.9 percent in 2003.
The Cook Islands enjoyed moderate growth in 2001 based on a rebound in tourism, while Tuvalu’s economy was stoked by an expansionary fiscal policy.
