RECENTLY, the BBC featured an article by a security expert which argued that war in the Pacific is not imminent because it would not be in anyone’s interest. After the announcement that Australia was tightening its defensive alliance with the United States and Great Britain by purchasing nuclear submarines and cruise missiles, China reacted as one might expect.
The West was “going down a dangerous road” and they were “disregarding the concerns of the international community.” By strengthening their defenses, Australia was “risking a new arms race and nuclear proliferation.” China sees cause for alarm in the moves by the West, and sees nothing provocative in its own actions. How can the two sides be so far apart? The BBC article continues:
“Not since the US Congressional leader Nancy Pelosi made her controversial visit to Taiwan last summer has China expressed such intense disapproval of Western actions.
“China, the world’s most populous nation, with the world’s largest army and navy, says it is starting to feel “penned in” by the US and its allies in the western Pacific. In response, President Xi Jinping announced recently that China would accelerate the expansion of its defence spending and named national security as the primary concern of the coming years.”
How did we get to this point? BBC contends that “the West got it wrong on China. For years there was a naïve assumption in foreign ministries that China’s economic liberalisation would inevitably lead to an opening up of society and greater political freedom. As western multinational companies set up joint ventures and hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens began to enjoy a higher standard of living then surely, the reasoning went, the Chinese Communist Party would loosen its grip on the population, allow some modest democratic reforms and become a fully-fledged member of the so-called ‘rules-based international order.’ But it hasn’t worked out that way.”
The main bones of contention between China and the West:
1) Taiwan. China has repeatedly vowed to take over this self-governing island, by force if necessary. President Joe Biden has said the U.S. would come to its defense, although official U.S. policy doesn’t commit to military action.
2) South China Sea. In recent years, China has used its huge navy to colonize parts of the South China Sea, claiming it as its own territory, contrary to international law.
3) Technology. China is increasingly accused of secretly harvesting vast amounts of personal data as well as stealing intellectual property to gain commercial advantage.
4) Hong Kong. Beijing has successfully crushed democracy in the former British colony, handing down lengthy sentences to activists.
Here is BBC’s main point:
“None of this though, means that China wants to go to war. It doesn’t. When it comes to Taiwan, it would much prefer to exert enough pressure on it that it capitulates and submits to Beijing’s rule without a shot being fired. On Hong Kong and intellectual property, it knows that over time the criticism will die down because trade with China is simply too important for the rest of the world.
“So, although tensions are high right now, and there could well be flashpoints still to come, both sides — China and the West — know that a war in the Pacific would be catastrophic for everyone and despite the angry rhetoric, it is in absolutely no-one’s interests.”
I have great respect for the opinion writers at the BBC, but I must take issue here. History is full of wars that were in no one’s interests. Was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in anyone’s interests? Did Japan attack Pearl Harbor with respect to its own interests? Were the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in anyone’s interest? My goodness. I could fill the rest of the newspaper with examples of horrible, destructive wars that were in no one’s interest.
In 1914, many experts argued that war was “obsolete” because modern, industrial economies were so closely linked by trade, it would be suicidal to fight. Within months, the most senseless war in human history raged. No one’s interests? With all due respect, BBC, that is foolish and naïve.
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.
BC Cook
