THE United States Coast Guard has recently announced plans to triple its patrols in the Western Pacific and has already dedicated several ships for these missions. Along with other recent developments, this means that Saipan and Guam can expect a considerable increase in the military activity around the islands, as well as the associated economic activity.
Deputy Commandant for Operations Policy Rear Adm. Michael Ryan, speaking at a defense conference last week, said the increase will not be merely for the short term, but is being done with a view to being permanent.
Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Brathwaite, in a 2020 paper, added, “Since the beginning of the 21st century, our three Sea Services [navy, coast guard, marines] have watched with alarm the growing naval power of the People’s Republic of China and the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation [This was before the invasion of Ukraine]. Our globally deployed naval forces interact with Chinese and Russian warships and aircraft daily. We witness firsthand their increasing sophistication and growing aggressiveness. Optimism that China and Russia might become responsible leaders contributing to global security has given way to recognition that they are determined rivals. The People’s Republic of China represents the most pressing, long-term strategic threat.”
The new Marcos government in the Philippines has abandoned former-President Duterte’s posture of strategic ambivalence and has gone all-in with the Americans. Perhaps the Marcos team saw that improved relations with the Chinese was a one-way street. In any case, agreements have been reached to substantially increase the American presence in that island nation.
Australia struck a deal last year that will increase its naval strength, particularly in the realm of nuclear attack submarines. This could lead to more port calls in the Marianas as these vessels are out on patrol.
In recent weeks, the Solomon Islands government renewed its commitment the American relationship. Like the Philippines, they were disillusioned by heavy-handed Chinese tactics, having taken on enormous debt in exchange for Chinese military access and dubious infrastructure developments.
With all this increase in activity in the Western Pacific, what can the people of the Marianas expect? As the main military base in the region, Guam can certainly expect a boom in economic activity. More sailors and soldiers will mean more money to spend in restaurants and the like. The same can be said for Saipan. More ships will mean more visits. More meals at local restaurants, more visits to popular tourist attractions, more money spent in souvenir shops. What can the people, the businesses, and the government of Saipan do to be ready for what is coming?
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.
BC Cook
