THERE is an inescapable fact affecting communities in the Pacific, and until now we have not spent much time talking about it. Soon will come a time, however, when we have no choice but to face it. The population is getting older.
Around 70 years ago, the largest group of children ever born came into being, and ever since then, the generations have gotten steadily smaller. What will that mean as a large group of people reaches retirement and their contribution to society lessens while their demands on resources grows? Let’s consider a few issues.
In modern, post-industrial Pacific countries like Japan and the United States, the healthcare system is facing a crisis. People in their 70s, 80s and 90s require more medical attention, more prescription drugs, more hospital stays, more doctor visits. Not only do medical events happen more frequently, but the cost of each event is higher. When a man in his 20s breaks his wrist, it is a short trip to the emergency room, a bandage or cast, and away he goes. When that same man is 80, it becomes life-threatening, almost certainly guaranteeing a hospital stay and support of medication.
This would not be a problem, simply the burden of aging, but now, for perhaps the first time in history, the population of those countries is shrinking. There are fewer people in their 20s than in their 60s. More people of retirement age and less people of working age.
Further, because people are living longer than ever before, the elderly require the support of the health care system longer. When Social Security was created in the United States during the Great Depression, the retirement age was set at 65 in part because few people lived much past 70. A non-working person would be expected to draw from the system for five or 10 years.
Today, people regularly live into their 80s, and more than ever are reaching their 90s. I know several people who have been collecting Social Security longer than they actually worked. One man, who shall remain nameless, brags about how he worked for 25 years and has been retired for over 30. Great for him, I say. But how long can a system function with statistics like that?
When it comes to the islands, there are added factors. Not only are elderly generations larger than the ones coming after, but young people are leaving the islands in droves, headed to the mainland of Asia or America in search of jobs, education and opportunities. This migration aggravates an already dire situation.
Also, many island communities do not have built-in social safety nets like Social Security. For many, their children are their retirement plan. Grandma and Grandpa will move in with a grandchild, typically the one who is best off financially. I asked a Filipino man how he was planning for retirement. He pointed at his three sons in the other room. One of them has since moved to America, one married and started his own family, and the last has yet to reach adulthood. What will become of him?
In many ways, the discussion of an aging population has focused on Japan, the country that is hitting the crisis point sooner than most. Countries like the United States, Australia and Philippines keep a wary eye on what happens there, because they can learn from their mistakes and choose the paths that work best.
Do yourself and favor and watch the movie “Plan 75” out of Japan. Released in 2022, the film is set in the near future when the Japanese government offers free assisted suicide for anyone over the age of 75. Through a group of elderly women, we see an aging nation struggling with the issues we all must face someday.
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.
BC Cook
