A MASS extinction may be happening before our eyes, and we seem powerless to prevent it. Then again, nature might be doing what it always does: going through one of its normal cycles that we neither understand nor control.
One thing is certain, the snow crab population in the ocean near Alaska is in catastrophic decline. According to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the population of crabs in the Bering Sea stands at around 2 billion. That may sound alright, but they numbered close to 12 billion in 2018. In four years, the crab community has declined 84 percent. It is beyond dispute that this is a disaster.
The crab season has been called off for this year and will likely be cancelled the next two or three years until the population recovers. What we need to understand, and quickly, is what caused it, what we can do about it, and what effects it will have.
Where did all the crabs go? There are several theories. One is that the decline in numbers is due to overfishing, but that is not likely. The Alaskan crab industry is well in-tune with crab numbers and know how many they can harvest sustainably. If they bring up too many, or the wrong kind, they risk decimating the stock, which does them no good in the long run. Fishermen concentrate on certain species and certain sizes, carefully avoiding catching adolescent crabs who have not had a chance to reproduce. Since the crab fleet is carefully monitored, all indicators are that they are harvesting sustainably.
Another theory is that rising ocean temperatures have affected the crab. One theorist supposes that due to the increase in water temperature, about three degrees Fahrenheit in the Bering Sea over the last forty years, the crabs’ metabolism has sped up, resulting in a greater demand for food which the crabs simply cannot find, resulting in their mass starvation. I find this very unlikely. The crabs have shown a remarkable ability to respond to climate pressure in the past, and the temperature has increased slowly, with a barely discernable increase from year to year. The crabs never showed signs of distress until now, and all at once.
Still another theory has to do with that massive fishing fleet that circles the world, gobbling up all the fish stocks. I am talking about the Chinese fishing fleet of over 700 vessels that wiped out sea life around the Galapagos Islands a few years ago before it turned the corner around South America and destroyed the fish stocks off Argentina. That fleet is the greatest perpetrator of IUU fishing (illegal, unreported, unregulated). Around a decade ago, it went unreported by the media that the Chinese IUU fleet vacuumed up all the squid from the waters around the Korean peninsula, leading to mass starvation in North Korea.
So, we still don’t know why the crab population has declined so catastrophically, which means we cannot fix the problem. However, we can speculate on its effects. Already, with the crabbing fleet idle, communities in Alaska who depend on the harvest are in trouble. While farmers can take advantage of government programs designed to help with crop failure, there are no such programs for fishing failure.
There is no question the price of crab in your favorite restaurant will skyrocket until it is no longer available, so get crab while you still can. With the absence of crab, expect greater demand for other ocean foods. Lobster, shrimp, and fish will all experience increasing demand, and therefore higher prices, at least in the short run.
Will snow crab populations recover? It is impossible to say at this point. We need to find out what caused the collapse before we know if we can reverse it. Is the decline natural, or are we causing the extinction of the crab, either by pollution or illegal fishing? Does the North Pacific experience an event similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle in the South Pacific? Clearly, more answers are needed. Let’s hope we find them before it is too late.
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.
BC Cook
