Endgame
ON Tuesday, just before the House JGO voted to hold the governor in contempt, one of the committee members stated that they “are finally towards the end of the investigation….”
Finally indeed.
The committee should now issue its report and introduce the articles of impeachment. As the House leaders have earlier indicated, impeachment is the expected end result of their “probe.” Arguably, impeachment would also render the governor’s lawsuit against the JGO moot.
But the main question now before the governor’s political opponents is this: do they have the votes to impeach him? The “magic” number in the House is 14. The Democrat-Independent bloc has 11 members. And there are at least four Arnold & Dave Republicans in the House. 11 + 4 = 15.
Would the A&D bloc vote for impeachment? That could be a rhetorical question. If the governor is impeached by the House and convicted in the Senate, he would be removed from office, and the lt. governor would be the new governor. And as a governor who is no longer hounded by corruption and other allegations, he could be a formidable — or more formidable — candidate in Nov. 2022. (See 2014 election results. A beleaguered — and impeached — governor had resigned. His lt. governor became governor. He re-unified the administration party and, with a then very popular running mate, handily won the election.)
So let’s rephrase the question. Would the A&D bloc support a political process whose result could be extremely favorable to their candidate?
Next question.
The “magic” number in the Senate is six. The Republican-independent leadership bloc in the upper house has seven members of whom five are considered “solid” supporters of the governor. But how solid are they? If the lt. governor becomes governor, the Senate president will be the new lt. governor. And if conviction becomes inevitable, the A&D and the governor’s factions could seek a less dramatic outcome. For example, the governor could agree to resign “for the sake of peace in the community as we face the greatest health and economic crisis in our Commonwealth history, etc.” In return, his loyalists would retain their government jobs and/or contracts — or get new ones. His running mate would be the future Senate president and the party’s anointed one in the next gubernatorial election, etc., etc. Meanwhile, they would all agree to work together to ensure victory in 2022.
As for those who believe that this seemingly endless political saga, which actually started in 2018, is solely about “abuse of public funds,” “good government,” etc., etc. — don’t stop believin’…hold on to that feelin’.
All together now…
One more thing
THE governor’s lawyers believe that the executive and legislative branches of government are separate and equal; therefore, they can’t issue “commands” to each other. That is a contention that the court or courts will have to address now that the governor has filed a lawsuit.
Meanwhile, if the House JGO truly wants to “hear” the governor’s explanations for the public expenditures the committee members say are questionable and/or illegal, and if the governor truly wants to answer their questions, then both parties should set up a meeting. As earlier proposed by the governor’s legal counsel, the House speaker would “facilitate” the “confab.” The JGO chair would ask questions. The meeting would be broadcast to the public. The committee would not insist that the governor testify under oath. (He is likely to be impeached soon anyway.) The governor would not demand that the committee withdraw the subpoena. (JGO has found him in contempt already.)
How about it, honorable officials of the CNMI government?
