Physicians’ advisory group: Guam’s critical-care system nears breaking point

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HAGÅTÑA (The Guam Daily Post) — For Guam residents who haven’t yet heeded Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero’s public health emergency declaration — telling the public to stay home — here are the latest numbers from the governor’s Physicians’ Advisory Group.

Guam’s critical care system is nearing a breaking point, said Dr. Felix Cabrera, who presented the advisory group’s report Monday.

At the current rate of the spread of the virus that causes Covid-19, Guam’s “critical care system breakpoint could occur by next week, if not sooner,” according to the presentation.

Assuming that 20% of infected patients require hospitalization and that 20% of those admitted end up in the ICU, the breaking point of Guam’s critical care system will be March 31 or April 15 at the latest.

“Although still alarming, the current daily spread rate of 33% is because of our strong current efforts,” according to the presentation.

If there were no GovGuam and community interventions, done from the beginning, a 200% daily spread rate would have been seen, the physicians’ group’s presentation stated. And the breaking point for Guam’s critical care system could have occurred “yesterday,” Cabrera stated.

“We as a community must make enough aggressive changes to flatten the rising rate of infection,” the group stated.

The group said:

• Everyone must listen to the governor’s orders and precautions. Strict social distancing and very frequent hygiene are important.

• The manamko’ and all those with chronic medical problems like hypertension/high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, and especially those on dialysis are the most vulnerable and need additional isolation and protection.

“If we cut in half our current spread rate, Guam’s critical care system will have a chance to bend without breaking,” according to the presentation.

“If Guam can cut its current spread rate to 16.5%, Guam’s critical care system will have a chance to bend without breaking.”

As of Sunday evening, a total of 29 cases tested positive and 161 cases tested negative for Covid-19 with one death, the Guam Department of Public Health and Social Service said. All 28 remaining confirmed cases are in isolation, it added.

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