By Bryan Manabat
[email protected]
Variety News Staff
THE Marianas Visitors Authority is forecasting 148,000 visitors for fiscal year 2026, a slight improvement from earlier projections, but still below last year’s arrivals, as airlines continue to adjust flight schedules and seat capacity into the CNMI.
According to the local business community, 500,000 arrivals are needed to prevent further losses in the tourism sector.
MVA Managing Director Jamika Taijeron presented the updated forecast to board members during the agency’s Dec. 29 meeting, outlining November arrival numbers, airline seat trends, and market activity in Japan and Korea.
Taijeron said the revised projection reflects a 2% increase from MVA’s previous forecast, driven largely by updated seat capacity estimates. Total available seats for FY 2026 are now expected to be 7% higher than previously projected.
“We’re expecting 148,000 visitors this year, compared to 160,000 last year,” Taijeron said. “As more flights are confirmed and as we attract new airlines, this number will continue to increase. The goal is to exceed last year’s arrivals.”
November arrivals
Visitor arrivals in November totaled 8,618, a 29.7% decline from the same month last year.
Japan was the lone bright spot, posting a 106% increase year over year due to group travel. Korea arrivals fell 42%, which Taijeron attributed to reduced seat capacity. China arrivals continued to show gradual improvement.
Seat capacity shifts, airline changes
The CNMI recorded 14,921 inbound seats in November, down from 19,405 in October. Taijeron said the October figure was inflated by additional flights tied to Korea’s Chuseok holiday, while November saw reductions and suspensions by some carriers.
Load factors remained “healthy,” she said, at 73% in October and 76% in November.
A major factor affecting 2026 performance will be Jeju Air’s shift from daytime to nighttime flights starting this year.
“Daytime flights attract more FIT [Free Independent Travelers], who are typically higher spenders,” Taijeron said. “We expect some shift in market behavior because of this.”
Other airline updates:
• Hong Kong Airlines adding twice-weekly flights starting in May
• Philippine Airlines included in the FY 2026 seat forecast
• T’way reducing flights from 30 in 2024 to 7 in 2025, significantly reducing Korean arrivals
• Jeju Air maintaining 30 flights year over year
• Japan flights increasing from 12 to 13
• Hong Kong flights decreasing from 9 to 8
• Guam flights increasing from 29 to 30
Cruise ships
Recently, two cruise ships, Asuka III and Mitsui Ocean Fuji, visited Saipan.
Asuka III, Japan’s newest flagship vessel operated by NYK Cruises, made its inaugural arrival on Dec. 31, docking at 6:30 a.m. and departing at 5 p.m. Mitsui Ocean Fuji had arrived on Dec. 30, following a stop in Guam the day before.
Mitsui Ocean Fuji carried 419 passengers and 346 crew members while Asuka III arrived with 522 passengers and 459 crew members.
Bryan Manabat was a liberal arts student of Northern Marianas College where he also studied criminal justice. He is the recipient of the NMI Humanities Award as an Outstanding Teacher (Non-Classroom) in 2013, and has worked for the CNMI Motheread/Fatheread Literacy Program as lead facilitator.
