An image shows the predicted number of tropical cyclones of typhoon (≥74 mph sustained winds) intensity for June to December 2025.
NOAA image
THE main islands of the Marianas — Rota, Tinian, Saipan and Guam — can expect two or three typhoons this year and three to five named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater, according to the National Weather Service’s tropical cyclone outlook for the region.
Tropical cyclone activity across Guam, the CNMI, Yap State in the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau is anticipated to be near-normal or average for the remainder of 2025, while tropical cyclone below-normal activity is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.
According to the NWS, below-normal activity for the FSM and the Marshalls, and near-normal activity for Palau, Yap and the Marianas is consistent with the recent shift from La Niña to El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO-neutral.
According to Marcus Landon Aydlett, NWS Guam’s warning coordination meteorologist, “As ENSO-neutral conditions persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, areas across western Micronesia and the Marianas could see slightly more activity than was seen in 2024.”
He added, “Basin-wide tropical cyclone [or TC] activity typically shifts eastward in El Niño years, and westward during La Niña years. A slight eastward shift in TC activity is predicted with the current ENSO-neutral phase, allowing for near normal TC activity for western Micronesia and the Marianas.”
The outlook is for the general development of tropical cyclones or storms in the region, but it does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall.
“However,” Aydlett said, “the outlook does provide a general idea of how many tropical storms and/or typhoons could affect a specific island or a group of islands across Micronesia, with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/or storm surge/inundation.”
“Although TC activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, TCs can occur throughout the year across the western North Pacific. Therefore, there is no clearly defined typhoon season,” he said.
The following is the rest of the outlook for the Micronesia region:
Two named storms are expected in the Marshalls north of 6N, with one expected in the Marshalls south of 6N.
No typhoons outlook is expected in Pohnpei or Chuuk south of 6N, or in Kosrae and the Marshall Islands. One typhoon is expected in Pohnpei or Chuuk north of 6N.
Two typhoons are expected in Yap and Palau.
Three typhoons are expected in the northern CNMI.
Yap and Palau can expect two to four named storms.
Two named storms are expected in Pohnpei north of 6N.
Three named storms are expected in Chuuk north of 6N.
Two named storms are expected in Kosrae, Chuuk and Pohnpei south of 6N.
Three to five named storms are expected in the northern CNMI.
