LITTLE has changed in the past 24 hours; however, we do have two areas that are now labeled Invests 97W and 98W by the JTWC.
97W is loosely centered west of the Marianas near 15N142E, and is drifting SSE.
98W is centered north of Chuuk near 10N152E and is drifting westward. These two disturbances are expected to converge somewhere near or SE of Guam Tuesday evening or Wednesday before slowly becoming better organized and heading N or NW.
While showers and thunderstorms will cluster near 97W and the eventual 97W-98W merger, drier conditions could actually spread into the Marianas from the north Wednesday-Thursday.
By late week, as the merged disturbance becomes better organized and heads N or NW, the potential for heavy rains and strong gusty winds will remain highly dependent on the exact track with a sharp gradient in wind/rainfall potential aligned near the islands.
Across Yap and Palau, strong southwesterly monsoon flow will continue through Tuesday evening occasionally bringing gusts to around 35 mph.
Conditions will briefly subside Wednesday before showers and winds increase across Yap and then at Palau with a redevelopment of a strong westerly monsoon flow slated for the weekend.
Farther east, a surface trough near Pohnpei continues to march westward. Showers, thunderstorms, and gusts to 30 mph will be possible in the more vigorous convection Tuesday near Pohnpei, though conditions are already steadily improving across Kosrae and Majuro, followed by Pohnpei tonight.
Weakened winds and patchy showers are expected the next several days for the region with no organized disturbances expected into the weekend, except for Chuuk where southwesterly monsoon winds and showers could spread into the area over the weekend.
