The hydrodynamic model was completed by PICRC researchers Jacques Idechong, Lukes Isechal and Steven Victor, with the help of Professor Eric Wolanski of James Cook University, a world-renown oceanographer from Australia. The project was funded by PICRC, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Oceans Program, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation through the Palau Ecosystem Based Management Initiative, and the Palau National Government.
According to Carol Emmaurois, Head, Environmental Education of PICRC, the model predicts water currents all over the Palau archipelago. The main drivers are tides, winds, waves, bathymetry, river flow, and water circulation in the surrounding ocean.It can also simulate how particles such as coral and fish larvae and fine soil will move, mix and spread within the archipelago.
“We’re using this model to look at the currents in Palau, so we know what will happen in scenarios such as coral spawning,” said Jacques Idechong, PICRC researcher, in a previous interview.
With the possibility oil exploration in Palau, the model can also be handy to see what happens if there’s oil spill in a certain area. “If you want to do oil exploration in a certain area, we could run a scenario and show what will happen if there’s oil spill,” Idechong added.
At present, PICRC is using the hydrodynamic model in doing a study on the resilience of Palau’s reefs. They are going to publish the study next year in Coral Reefs Journal.
The model can now be used to decide where the country’s Marine Protected Areas should be located to ensure connectivity, resilience and ultimately sustainability to human impacts and climate change.
According to PICRC, the Hydrodynamic Model is the first glimpse at the “big picture” of how the archipelago functions as an ecosystem, how some reefs are ecologically connected to others by water currents.
“For instance, coral and fish larvae from one reef can seed another reef far away; and silt from eroding land will not only affect the reefs and seagrass beds near river mouths but can also degrade areas farther away along the current stream,” Emmaurois explained. “This model thus provides a powerful tool to predict both the impacts and the potential recovery of our reefs within the context of various land use and climate change scenarios.”
Environmental impacts of new infrastructures can also be monitored through this model. “Changes to the land such as cutting and clearing areas for buildings and roads can produce large changes on the reefs,” Emmaurois said. “For example, heavy rains during spawning season can wash bare soil that is carried out onto reefs, reducing the chances of survival of larvae which are a vital component of the reefs as well as food and income for many of us here on the island.”
Through this model, researchers are able to look at both the dispersal patterns of larvae as well as the sediment that impact their survival.
“Palau has, on occasion, been the first in our region to move forward in various aspects of island life,” Emmaurois said. “Now we can be a world example of scientific progress and discovery.”
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