This possibility is still a matter of public opinion in this area.
According to analysts, in official statements, China has never ruled out the possibility of establishing ADIZ in the South China Sea. Recently, sources close to the Chinese military told foreign journalists that China has a plan and is ready to set up ADIZ in the South China Sea. The “leak” of such information is considered by observers to be China way of “probing” the world’s reaction before making an official decision.
Celia Lamkin With such a vague signal, there has been quite a bit of debate about whether China can actually afford ADIZ in practice. Since 2014, China has begun the process of clearing up artificial islands in the South China Sea and then intensifying militarization of the Spratlys under its control. On Woody Island, Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef, China built four 3,000-meter runways with hangars that could accommodate dozens of aircraft. In addition, China also installed high-frequency radar stations on these entities and the Cuarteron Reef. In these artificial islands, China deployed surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles with a range of about 400 km.
Recent satellite images show the KJ-500 early warning aircraft, the KQ-200 anti-submarine patrol aircraft and the Yuzhao Type 071 amphibious transport ship present on the Fiery Cross Reef. If these infrastructure and weapons systems are instrumental in achieving China hegemony in the South China Sea, ADIZ will provide a favorable legal foundation for Beijing’s deployment.
Some experts, such as Philippine Judge Antonio Carpio, argue that China’s ability to declare ADIZ in the South China Sea may come true, but will be disguised by not using the name ADIZ, or there will be an ADIZ but not a declaration. In particular, China has effectively implemented a “pre-ADIZ” in the South China Sea by warning Philippine aircraft to fly over Spratlys to avoid the area. Similar ships and aircraft from Vietnam, the United States, Australia and India have also received similar warnings. However, China’s “pre-ADIZ” seems to cover no more than 20 nautical miles from the shores of Chinese-controlled entities.
Scenarios
From early 2020 until now, there has been speculation about the possibility of Beijing’s establishment of an ADIZ n the South China Sea. Recently, the South China Morning Post cited an unnamed source as saying that China was well prepared for declaring an ADIZ in the South China Sea. Here are some scenarios for a Chinese ADIZ:
1) China establishes ADIZ in the airspace that covers the Paracel Islands and surrounding waters.
2) ADIZ covers most of the South China Sea airspace, including the Spratly Islands.
3) ADIZ can be established in the skies of the “nine-dash line”.
Of the three scenarios above, if China established ADIZ in the South China Sea, the most likely scenario would be on the Paracel Islands.
Beijing may be ready to declare and implement an ADIZ in the South China Sea, but it still has to consider the issue of damage.”
How to respond
Due to the strategic position of the South China Sea and the nature of the disputes in this maritime area, the ADIZ that China can establish will cause serious consequences for the region, leading to escalating tensions among Beijing and other countries. Pushing the region into a new escalation of conflicts is very dangerous in the fields of diplomacy and law — similar to the tensions that happened when China set up ADIZ in the East China Sea. China would probably face opposition from countries with aviation and maritime interests such as the U.S., or those operating flight information regions in this area like Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
Balance of power
Although Philippine Rodrigo Duterte’s administration seems to be quite close to China, his term will end in 2022, and he is also under a lot of pressure from Filipinos who oppose Chinese policy in the South China Sea. Duterte’s decision to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States has been suspended few weeks ago. Recently, former Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio called on the people to vote for those who protect the interests of the nation in the 2022 elections. A post-Duterte government is expected to make new policy adjustments, especially in the South China Sea issue.
In this context, if China declares ADIZ in the South China Sea, Vietnam and the post-Duterte Philippine government may consider granting U.S. troops regular access to strategic locations on the South China Sea area such as Cam Ranh Bay and Da Nang in Vietnam or Ulugan Bay, Subic Bay and Zambales province in the Philippines. This will counter China’s facilities on the artificial island. These actions will bring about a balance of regional power and neutralize China’s ADIZ.
Legal mechanism
Besides using diplomacy and international public opinion to condemn China, the other countries can use legal measures to “defend” against China:
- Vietnam can set up its own ADIZ on the Paracel Islands, which can regain some form of Vietnamese management over the islands and thus weaken China’s position.
- Vietnam and Malaysia can sue Beijing for its unilateral activities in its exclusive economic zones, illegal activities based on the Award of the Arbitral Tribunal in the Philippines’ case against China.
Legally, the arbitral tribunal ruling affirmed that, although China declared not to participate, did not accept and not willing to comply with the decision of the Arbitral Tribunal on July 12, 2016, China was still a party in the Philippine case and remains legally bound by the tribunal’s ruling. Therefore, if China establishes an ADIZ in the airspace of the Spratly Islands or the airspace above the “nine-dash line,” the Philippines may continue to request the Arbitral Tribunal to declare measures related to this ADIZ under Article 290, Section 1 of the United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS.
Similarly to the Philippines, other countries directly involved in the South China Sea dispute, such as Malaysia or Vietnam, may also use an arbitral process under Annex VII of the UNCLOS 1982, in accordance with Articles 58 and 87 of UNCLOS if China declares an ADIZ in this area. At the same time, Vietnam or Malaysia may request the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to apply provisional measures under Article 290, Section 5 of the UNCLOS while waiting for a decision from the arbitral tribunal.
We can see that, due to the important role and geopolitical position of the South China Sea for the international community, the stability of this maritime area is an inseparable part of the national interests of many countries around the world. Therefore, the announcement of the ADIZ may create regional and global solidarity to counter China’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
John Hoang is a visiting scholar of the National Taiwan University and is a lawyer whose expertise is in international law and law of the sea. Dr. Celia Lamkin is the global chairperson and founder of the National Youth Movement for West Philippine Sea.
