The problem with forecasts, he wrote, “goes beyond their mere lack of accuracy. My critique is with the underlying cognitive and philosophical failings that are associated with the entire forecasting industry: a lack of humility, the assumption of a skill set clearly not in evidence, and most damning of all, a failure to recognize the randomness of the world at large.”
But it’s a new year once again, and many of our undeterred experts — including the self-proclaimed ones — are at it again with their predictions. Before we believe any of them, Rolf Dobelli, author of “The Art of Thinking Clearly,” said we should also be aware of the “hindsight bias”: “in retrospect, everything seems clear and inevitable.” For example, “if a CEO becomes successful…he will, looking back, rate the probability of his success a lot higher than it actually was.” Another example: “in 2007, economic experts painted a rosy picture for the coming years.” When the economy crashed in 2008, the same experts had a ready explanation for what just happened. The hindsight bias, Dobelli added, makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are.
He advises us to read history — “not the retrospective, compacted theories compiled in textbooks, but the diaries, oral histories and historical documents from the period.” We should also read newspapers from five, 10 or 20 years ago, Dobelli said. “This will give you a much better sense of how unpredictable the world is. Hindsight may provide temporary comfort to those overwhelmed by complexity, but as for providing revelations about how the world works, you’ll benefit by looking elsewhere.”
So let’s start the New Year by recalling some of the most expertly predictions made by experts who just happened to be dead wrong (my source is “The Experts Speak” by Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky):
• “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Charles H. Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Office of Patents, urging President William McKinley to abolish the patents office, 1899.
• “[W]hen the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it.” — Erasmus Wilson, Oxford University professor, 1878.
• “It is quite impossible that the noble organs of human speech could be replaced by ignoble, senseless metal.” — Jules Bouillaud, member of the French Academy of Sciences, before viewing a demonstration of Thomas Edison’s phonograph, 1878.
• “I watched [Samuel Morse’s] countenance closely, to see if he was not deranged…and I was assured by other Senators after we left the room that they had no confidence in it.” — U.S. Sen. Oliver Hampton Smith of Indiana, after a demonstration by Samuel Morse of his telegraph to members of Congress, 1842.
• “Well-informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.” — Editorial in the Boston Post, commenting on the arrest for fraud of Joshua Coppersmith who had been attempting to raise funds for work on a telephone, 1865.
• “Radio has no future.” — Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, former president of the Royal Society, 1897.
• “Television won’t matter in your lifetime or mine.” — Rex Lambert, editorial in The Listener, 1936.
• “Worthless.” — Sir George Bidell Airy, K.C.B., M.A., LL.D., D.C.L., F.R.S., F.R.A.S., Astronomer Royal of Great Britain, estimating the potential value of the “analytical engine” (general-purpose computer) invented by Charles Babbage, 1842.
• “We don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.” — Hewlett-Packard executive, responding to Apple Computer founders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak’s attempt to interest HP in the “personal computer” they had designed, 1976.
• “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Corporation, at the Convention of the World Future Society in Boston, 1977.
• “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in Ford Motor Company, 1903.
• “Nothing of importance happened today.” — George III, King of England, diary entry, July 4, 1776.
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