NMC instructor and local political analyst Sam McPhetres says this fragmentation of the political scene began in 1991 with the unprecedented election of two Independent House candidates — Jess Mafnas and Antonio M. Camacho. It became full blown in the 2001 gubernatorial election, when, for the first time in commonwealth history, four candidates ran for the CNMI’s highest office: two Republicans and two Democrats. In 2005, three Republicans ran against a lone Democrat, who finished last.
This year, there will be more than four gubernatorial candidates, but there will also be a runoff between the top two. It will be a very different game for the frontrunners. They have to be not one but two moves ahead of their opponents.
Sam tells me that this political fragmentation mirrors the disintegration of local society that started when the economy began to collapse in 1998. “We see people who started as Republicans or Democrats witnessing the day when party loyalty doesn’t mean anything anymore.”
According to Sam, when he arrived in the NMI in the 1970s, “the parties took care of everything.” Parties helped prepare for weddings, rosaries and other family gatherings of their members. “That’s when it started — politicians providing tents and tables,” Sam says. “In return, the parties expected loyalty. But now loyalty to the party has no more function. It sort of disappeared.”
A former CNMI official, who declined to be identified, agrees. “It’s every man for himself now — the parties never stood for anything anyway.”
The political climate has radically changed and will experience more convulsions, Sam says. “The CNMI will soon be under federal immigration rules. That will lead to drastic changes in the economy. Then there’s the election of Kilili as a member of the U.S. Congress. Now the CNMI has someone in the federal government accountable directly to the local people.”
The CNMI delegate, he notes, has equal voting rights on the committee, where the real legislative work is done. “He could team up with the other delegates and influence what legislation gets to the floor,” Sam says.
He also believes that the marine monument will “change things” in the CNMI. “Now we’ve to deal directly with federal authorities who will not put up with nonsense. What [the late businessman Larry] Hillblom once described as the NMI’s ‘internal sovereignty’ is eroding.”
I asked Sam why, unlike the NMI, Guam has a durable two-party system. “They can’t fragment there,” he says. “They’ve to focus on military issues and they have a more stable economy and demographics.”
Is this fragmentation of local politics good or bad?
“It’s neither,” Sam says. “It’s a process that the people have to go through. And eventually, we might return to a reformed and more stable two-party system, especially now that the local Democrats and Republicans are aligning themselves with their national counterparts.”
He expects close to 10 people running for governor this year. “Some are still being coy, dropping hints here and there, but it’s going to be an interesting and long drawn out battle. The runoff changes everything. Politics is changing.”
Whether the coming changes will be good or bad depends not on the candidates, but on the choices voters will make in November.
As a voter, you can always blame your leaders for the mess they’ve created in office, but you also have to remember who elected them in the first place.
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