I WAS asked recently what I thought about the congressional delegate election, and I had to admit that I had no idea who could win in November.
Pete A. has the most experience in CNMI-wide elections. Not counting the 1989 GOP gubernatorial primary, this will be his fifth CNMI-wide election and his record is 4 for 4. He has the backing of (the still) united GOP which, theoretically, should deliver a huge chunk of votes. But this is a special election. He is not running on a slate. He is, moreover, considered an incumbent at a time when a lot of people are frustrated with incumbents. He should be given credit for securing the passage of legislation that gives the CNMI a delegate seat in the U.S. Congress, but that law also includes the federalization of local immigration and his critics will try to blame him for its enactment (and never mind if it was his critics’ preferred labor and immigration policies — requiring Abramoff’s lobbying efforts — that made federalization inevitable). Still, it will be a mistake to count him out. The likely candidate of the resurrected Democrats, Sen. Louie Crisostimo, has won two tough elections — both of them five-way races — and always has his ear on the political ground. He’s a shrewd pol with an adequate campaign war chest.
No less astute is the first CNMI judge to be retained by voters, John Lizama. He was the Territorial (now Republican) Party’s candidate for Washington rep. in the first CNMI elections 31 years ago and was elected to the 1985 Constitutional Convention. He knows how to run an election campaign.
Kilili Sablan, a former two-term Democratic member of the House, has competently supervised CNMI elections for almost a decade and his political connections are as extensive as those of his opponents.
I was told that talk show host and DPL official John Gonzales is considered by many in the local community as the front-runner. And this is not only because one of his supporters voted 21,000 times in our online poll. Many consider him a “new face,” which he is not. He is as political as any of his opponents, another “insider.” But he is, I must admit, a formidable candidate. He’s well-known in the local community. He’s popular. Many consider him intelligent. In the 2001 elections, when the GOP triumphed by a landslide, he almost won a Senate seat as a Covenant candidate running against two formidable Republicans — Kiyu Villagomez and Pete Reyes. His smartest move, so far this year, is his decision not to run as a Covenant candidate.
Nothing much differentiates the congressional candidates in terms of platforms and political leanings which means that, as usual, likeability will be the major factor in this election.
Voters, to be sure, say they want to see change. But they should be clear about the change they’re asking for. If by “change” they mean a return to cheap gasoline, low power rates and plenty government jobs that guarantee annual pay hikes — all candidates will be in trouble. No one can deliver on those promises.
The candidates, for their part, must not overpromise. They know that having a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is not the equivalent of getting the key to the federal Treasury. We should also recall that American Samoa’s Democratic delegate, a member of Congress since 1989, had to watch helplessly while his party mates included the territory in the wage hike legislation.
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The local Democrats are trying to rebuild their dilapidated party and this is good for the CNMI’s political health. Since 2001, the two main political parties in the CNMI have been the GOP and its breakaway faction, the Covenant Party. This shows how marginal the Democrats have become in the CNMI political landscape at a time when new ideas are badly needed by the commonwealth.
The Democrats are correct to acknowledge their need for an infusion of “new blood.” I don’t see why the party can’t attract younger members. The Democratic (i.e., liberal, a.k.a., “progressive”) brand actually has a sizeable constituency in the local community, particularly among the youth and the well-educated. The local Democrats should take their cue from their national counterparts and learn how to reach out to the young men and women of the islands. This may take time — the Republicans are poised to win the 2009 polls, provided they hold an open gubernatorial primary — but affiliation with the DNC and the impending demise of the Covenant Party will help the local Democrats regain their status as a major party.
The enduring strength of the local GOP is based on its supporters’ belief in their party’s ability to win elections. To bring in new members, the local Democrats must try to be something more than just an election machine. The Republicans have already cornered that market. What the Democrats can do is to be the first local party with political beliefs and new ideas.
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