HAGÅTÑA (The Guam Daily Post) — Despite perceptions, missile defense was never intended to be a “perfect shield” to protect Guam or military facilities on the island, according to Ankit Panda, a Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Generally, I think it’s been interesting to see the emphasis on missile defense. I’ve sort of seen that there’s a perception that missile defense will perhaps be something like a shield for Guam, or that it will be a completely sufficient solution for the challenges that Guam might face in conflict. And that’s been surprising because missile defense was never intended to play that role,” Panda said last week, during a meeting with local media.
“So, for me, I would like to see the focus here in the public debate on the complementary capabilities that need to come along with the missile defense system. Overall, that might be increasing (the) resiliency of infrastructure on Guam, pursuing things like shelters for the civilian populations, early warning capabilities, all of that needs to happen in tandem. And some of that, I hope, will be a result of voices here beginning to potentially pursue these goals in Washington, (D.C.),” he added.
Panda was the keynote speaker at the College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences 45th Annual Research Conference at the University of Guam, where he discussed various dynamics taking place in the Pacific region “amid intensifying geopolitical competition,” primarily between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China.
The Pacific is “at the cusp of a new missile age driven by perceptions of rising insecurity across the board,” with short- to intermediate-range missile systems quickly proliferating in the region and contributing to a complex set of security dilemmas, Panda said during his keynote presentation on Thursday.
Panda was joined that night by members of the Pacific Center for Island Security – Leland Bettis, Kenneth Kuper and Robert Underwood, a former UOG president and former delegate to Congress.
On Guam, the U.S. military is in the process of developing a 360-degree Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense System in response to the growing military threat from China.
Panda said last week, during his meeting with the media, that Guam often comes up during his work in Washington, D.C., which involves geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific area, particularly in terms of nuclear weapons and missile dynamics. He said he doesn’t believe the island’s relevance will fade away anytime soon, with that relevance being a function of the geopolitical contest between the U.S. and China.
“What might change Guam’s relevance geopolitically? It would be a decrease in U.S.-China tensions. Diplomacy, ultimately, is a tool that can contribute to decreasing the probability of war here in the Pacific,” Panda said.
“But ultimately, as much as we would like diplomacy to be effective, the United States can’t will diplomacy into practice. It needs a willing counterpart in China, and that’s proven difficult in this broader geopolitical environment that we’re in, where the U.S.-China strategic agenda just has too many issues on the agenda, not just the Taiwan issue,” he added later.
Efforts to build up missile defense capabilities on Guam have led to various concerns, including concerns that it would paint a larger target on the island.
Panda said he does believe Guam will be a target in case of conflict between the U.S. and China, but he doesn’t believe U.S. missile defense plans will instigate an attack. He said any attack on Guam likely would result from a broader conflict in the Indo-Pacific between the two superpowers, probably over Taiwan’s status.
But what can change due to building up missile defense systems is the intensity of the attack, according to Panda.
“This is why missile defense can feed into an arms race dynamic. China will look at Guam and China will see what is being done to protect Guam. … And a conclusion that Beijing might reach is that, as a result of this, there needs to be investments in further missiles,” Panda said, adding that one of the fastest growing missiles in China’s inventory is one specifically designed to be able to hit Guam, the DF-26.
Although Guam does come up a lot in his work, Panda said the island often comes up “in the abstract,” as a strategic asset for the U.S.
“The biggest thing I’ve gotten out of the last 48 hours or so that I’ve been here is what are the perspectives here on the island? How are all these big-picture geopolitical dynamics affecting the ordinary people that live here?” Panda said.
While Panda said he was no expert on Guam, he added that, as someone who works in D.C., he would like to see more perspectives from the island come to the surface.
“That might be as simple as having voices from Guam who work in security appear in the major newspapers in Washington, congressional hearings, … reaching out to congressional offices to see if there’s interest in bringing out witnesses from Guam,” Panda said.
“I think there’s a lot that can be done, but I think it will require a much greater level of interest on these issues in Guam because that’s something I’ve also noticed. It can be very easy to feel like Guam is distant, Guam is small, Guam is not a U.S. state, so there is no ability to affect these things. And I think that’s not necessarily correct, right? I think there needs to be an interest in debating these issues and trying, to the extent possible, (to) make sure those pleas are being heard in Washington,” he added.
Ankit Panda
