Words, words, words
IN an election year, many politicians will say many things that many voters want to hear. Hence, many candidates are “for” the economy which they want to “improve” and “reinvigorate.”
How?
Usually, by making more statements that many of us agree with — and have heard before. Diversification! Small businesses! Workforce development! Training! Education! Change!
In the CNMI’s case, the economy must improve soon so the government can collect the revenue that will pay for its operations, services, programs, debts and other obligations. The ARPA funds have, so far, prevented a financial cataclysm, but once they’re gone, then what?
The CNMI government’s last “good” (as in adequate) budget was enacted in Sept. 2018 (before Super Typhoon Yutu shredded it into pieces). That budget for FY 2019 identified $258.13 million in projected revenue sources, of which $171.58 million was available for government activities. Everyone was happy. Or almost everyone.
In contrast, the current (FY 2023) budget could only identify $150.4 million in projected revenue of which $104.7 million, if collected, should be available for government activities.
We’re talking about shortfalls amounting to over $107 million in projected revenue sources, and close to $67 million for government operations.
Can a candidate’s (usually recycled) “economic plan” and (undoubtedly) well-intentioned policy proposals help “improve” the economy? If we believe that then we should also pass an anti-littering law to…never mind.
What can actually work wonders for the economy are a significant increase in tourist arrivals and the entry of a major (and legitimate) investor or two. Both, however, are affected by international events way beyond the CNMI’s control: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the simmering conflict between the U.S. and China, the “strong” U.S. dollar vis a vis the Japanese yen and the South Korean won, the European energy crisis, inflation, a possible global recession, etc., etc.
Got a “plan” for all that?
To paraphrase Greta Thunberg, “Another campaign is over; empty words are all that remain.”
Actual data for the data-driven
WHAT elected officials and candidates for office can do right now is to not make things worse. The current economic crisis is quite possibly the worst in Commonwealth history. It may take a year or two or more before the tourism industry fully recovers. It will also take time — and money and effort — to promote the CNMI among legitimate off-island investors, and persuade at least one of them to do business in a small, remote jurisdiction located in “typhoon alley” with a small (and shrinking) population and labor shortages that are subject to the whims and fancies of faraway federal politicians and bureaucrats.
Don’t make it worse. Don’t further increase the cost of doing business in the CNMI whose overall economy, population and tourism industry are much smaller than Guam’s. The CNMI’s GDP in 2019 — pre-Covid — was $1.182 billion. Guam? $6.36 billion. The CNMI’s tourist arrivals peaked in 1997 — 25 long years ago — with 726,690 visitors. Before Covid-19, about 1.2 million tourists visit Guam each year. Unlike the CNMI, moreover, Guam benefits from hefty U.S. military spending.
And we cannot possibly compare the CNMI to the U.S. which has a population of over 330 million people and a GDP of $23 trillion in 2021. And yet despite its ever increasing wage rates and a multitude of training and apprentice programs, the U.S. continues to grapple with a persistent labor shortage.
Politicians can’t “solve” socio-economic problems the way many of us want these problems solved. But politicians certainly can make things worse. Don’t let them.
