HAGÅTÑA (The Guam Daily Post) — An exit poll conducted by students of University of Guam professor Ron McNinch shows voters in Saturday’s primary election supported Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero’s reelection bid in a 2:1 margin over Delegate Michael San Nicolas, who decided to leave his congressional position to unseat the island’s chief executive.
“The final results depends on a number of things, but we’re talking anywhere from 58% to 64% of votes cast for the (incumbent) governor. It could be as high as the 70s when all is said and done,” McNinch told The Guam Daily Post, clarifying that the higher percentage would be when comparing votes just in the Democratic race — and not the gubernatorial contest overall.
The poll validates similar margins for the Democratic primary contest resulting from one conducted over the phone Friday, he added.
While McNinch acknowledged some 5,000 votes cast prior to Saturday’s election could “wobble” the data collected in the two surveys, he still felt comfortable backing the general conclusion of the work his students produced.
“I feel pretty confident (the final vote count) is going to indicate that Lou Leon Guerrero ran the race, and Mike San Nicolas had his ethics issue and it took him down,” McNinch said.
But the “surprise” the poll results showed is a tight race over which Democratic candidate to take San Nicolas’ lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives will advance to the general election.
“It’s probably neck and neck between former Speaker (Judi) Won Pat and Sen. (Telena) Nelson,” the UOG professor said.
With another round of polling results to finalize in the early hours of Saturday evening, McNinch reported that just four votes separated the two women.
It could mean the pair are the two specific campaigns that will need to track results until the last precinct is counted, according to McNinch.
Other races
As expected, the lack of contested races on the Republican ballot ended with the lion’s share of those showing up to vote Saturday casting their ballot for the other political party.
Just about 16% of those polled voted Republican, McNinch told the Post, which would be more than enough for most, if not all, candidates to advance to the general election with a statutory minimum number of votes.
Voters were not polled on what senatorial or attorney general candidates they voted for, but other races will be included in a planned exit survey for the November general election.
“I never view polling as predictive, no matter the kind, but that can tell you a little bit about how things are going to go. It’s just a fun thing to talk about while we’re waiting for them to tabulate the results,” McNinch said, later adding: “The big goal is to have our students learn the methods and techniques for conducting these polls — and they really had a fun time doing it (Saturday).”
Ron McNinch, chair of public administration and legal studies at the University of Guam, speaks to members of the Rotary Club of Tumon Bay about the 2022 election on April 19, 2022. McNinch’s students completed an exit poll during the primary election, showing a tight race for delegate, and a 2:1 margin between Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero and Delegate Michael San Nicolas in the Democratic race for Adelup.
