By Bryan Manabat
[email protected]
Variety News Staff
THE Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands is bracing for one of its most active storm seasons in recent years, with the National Weather Service projecting three to five typhoons — including up to two major systems — in CNMI waters between June and December.
The 2026 outlook, presented Friday during the Joint Guam/CNMI Typhoon Preparedness Month press conference in Adelup, warns that the Marianas could face stronger and more frequent storms as a developing El Niño shifts cyclone formation eastward toward the islands.
Warning Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett said the CNMI’s exposure this year is significantly higher than during the quieter 2025 season, when La Niña pushed storm formation farther west. “We’re not guaranteed to take another direct hit,” he said, “but the likelihood of a direct hit is going to be much higher than in a La Niña year.”
Higher storm counts expected across the region
The NWS forecast shows the Marianas — including Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam — could see four to seven named storms through December. Of those, three to five may reach typhoon strength, and two or three could intensify into major typhoons.
Northern CNMI islands may also see increased activity, with several storms expected to reach typhoon intensity. Yap, Palau, Chuuk and Pohnpei are projected to experience above-normal storm counts as well, reflecting a basin-wide shift in cyclone behavior.
Aydlett said the pattern is already visible. Six tropical cyclones have formed in the Western North Pacific so far this year, including Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which brought destructive winds and storm surge across Saipan and Tinian in April. Satellite wind analyses and pressure readings from the NWS assessment showed Sinlaku peaking at 150 mph, with storm surge reaching 14 to 16 feet in parts of Saipan and southern Guam.
El Niño driving a more active season
Forecasters said the developing strong El Niño is the primary driver of the heightened risk. El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal, shifting atmospheric patterns and causing tropical cyclones to form farther east. That eastward shift gives storms more time to intensify before approaching the Marianas, increasing the likelihood of stronger and more frequent typhoons.
In contrast, La Niña years — such as 2025 — tend to push storm formation farther west, often resulting in fewer local impacts. The current El Niño pattern, NWS officials said, is why the 2026 outlook shows above-normal activity across Guam, the CNMI and much of Micronesia.
Call for unity and preparedness
The briefing closed with a renewed call for regional unity and year-round readiness as the Marianas enter what forecasters warn could be a volatile season. Guam Gov. Lourdes A. Leon Guerrero and CNMI Gov. David M. Apatang emphasized that stronger planning, better coordination and community-wide action remain essential to protecting lives and strengthening island communities.
Emergency planners, weather officials, homeland security leaders, first responders and community partners were recognized for their work in improving storm readiness. Each severe weather event — including Sinlaku — was described as a lesson that helps the islands build resilience and sharpen response capabilities.
The governors also highlighted the importance of cooperation across the Marianas, noting that the islands rely on shared resources, information and support during typhoons and other emergencies. Continued collaboration, they said, ensures leaders can make informed decisions that protect communities throughout the region.
They urged residents to review emergency plans, assemble disaster kits, stay informed and check on neighbors who may need assistance. The session concluded with a reminder that lessons from past storms should guide ongoing efforts to safeguard the islands.
Bryan Manabat was a liberal arts student of Northern Marianas College where he also studied criminal justice. He is the recipient of the NMI Humanities Award as an Outstanding Teacher (Non-Classroom) in 2013, and has worked for the CNMI Motheread/Fatheread Literacy Program as lead facilitator.
