His prediction was fulfilled on Aug. 11 when Airlines PNG charter flight CG4684 slammed into the steep Owen Stanley Range killing all 13 on board, including two Queenslanders and seven Victorians bound for the Kokoda Track.
A joint PNG and Australian investigation into the cause of the accident is now under way, and the passengers’ remains have been brought to the PNG coroner in Port Moresby for identification.
Pilots who have flown in PNG speak with fondness of the tough conditions and the excellent training it affords.
The experience comes with dramatic landscapes, unpredictable weather patterns and remote landing strips sometimes perched on hillsides. Once you graduate from PNG’s skies you can fly anywhere, they say.
The crash in mountainous country near Kokoda was shocking but not surprising for those who know PNG’s aviation history.
O’Toole, an Australian in charge of PNG’s governmental Air Crash Investigation unit, said in April last year authorities had failed to properly investigate 19 air crashes since 2000 in which 16 people, including three Australians and three New Zealanders, died.
Lack of funds and facilities were blamed for the failure of PNG’s Civil Aviation Authority and Department of Transport to fully examine those plane and helicopter crashes, despite legislation in 2004 establishing an Air Accident Commission.
“If people think the Garuda crash in Indonesia is bad, that’s nothing to what goes on here,” O’Toole said in the interview, referring to the Garuda Indonesia flight that crashed and burned on landing in Yogyakarta in 2007, killing 22.
“The investigation teams don’t have phones, fax machines, computers or resources to investigate crashes,” he said. “I feel for the families of all the victims.
“The situation is endangering lives. How can recommendations be made if there are no insights in why planes have gone down?
“There is no commission and any partial investigation is not legally binding,” he said.
Civil Aviation Authority director Joseph Kintau would not answer questions on Monday regarding PNG’s crash investigation track record and PNG Police Commissioner Gari Baki’s acknowledgment that the Kokoda crash inquiry would be the country’s first full investigation.
“Let’s focus on this investigation first,” Kintau said.
Earlier this year Kintau was calling on the PNG government to commit nearly $700 million to upgrade all the country’s runways and airports.
Former Kokoda Track Authority chief executive officer Warren Bartlett said moves to improve Kokoda’s makeshift runway were initiated in 2006 but never eventuated due to a severe cyclone in 2007.
“If there was an upgrade to the Kokoda runway, bigger Dash-8 planes could land there rather than these Twin Otters,” he said.
“The Dash can fly at 15,000 feet (4,570 meters), well above the ranges while the Twin Otters fly at around 9,000 feet to 10,000 feet (2,750 to 3,000 meters) and have to navigate through the Kokoda Gap.”
The larger planes would be a safer option, Bartlett said.
Others say larger planes could mean larger disasters.
There is speculation at this early stage that unpredictable weather, harsh terrain and pilot error may have been contributing factors in last Tuesday’s crash.
