THE war in Ukraine was expected to last a matter of days, but now staggers on into a third month with no end in sight. Russia, which has spent the last hundred years convincing the world they are a first-rate military power, struggles to dispatch a third-rate contender. True, Ukraine is receiving a lot of help from outsiders who have every reason to stop an aggressive Russia. Which brings us to this week’s column.
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union thirty-odd years ago, Russia has quietly rebuilt its influence over the former Soviet republics. If Putin cannot recreate the old empire in fact, he wants to have it in spirit. Some, like Belarus and the Crimea, have gone along with the ambition, seeing their future linked to Moscow, but others, such as Ukraine, are glad to be independent and hope to remain that way.
The move to extend NATO membership to Ukraine was ill-advised, which most European diplomats now agree. It was a slap that Russia could not abide for Ukraine, so long an integral part of the Russian empire, to now belong to an alliance that was founded as an anti-Russian defense group. Putin’s sensitivity to NATO in the Ukraine makes sense, but that does not justify invasion, let alone absorption.
But what, as the title suggests, does all this have to do with China and Taiwan? Recall that during the Olympics in China back in February, Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and they agreed that the invasion of Ukraine would not begin until after the Olympics were over, which reveals several key facts. One is that China had advanced knowledge of the invasion but did nothing to prevent it, and another is that China must have given some assurance that they would not take advantage of the war in Ukraine in some way.
Xi has his own problem with a smaller, breakaway state. Taiwan was once part of the Chinese empire. In fact, official policy in China is that it still is. According to Xi, Taiwan is not a separate nation but a rebel province, one which Beijing would like to bring back under control.
Xi has been monitoring the war in Ukraine very closely, studying the way various actors are behaving, and many important questions have been answered. Would the West react to an invasion in an area not traditionally their neighborhood? They have. How far would Western nations go to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression? While not committing troops, the United States and Western Europe have sent billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware such as tanks and missiles and resources and money to prop up the Ukrainian economy. Are Western nations growing weary of the war? The resolve of the West to not let Ukraine lose this war grows stronger every day.
Had the Western nations reacted tepidly to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is conceivable that Xi would have seen this as the opportunity to invade Taiwan. If Western resolve would have dwindled over time as losses piled up, Xi may have seen this as weakness on the part of the United States and its allies.
By reacting strongly to the invasion and pledging continued support to Ukraine no matter how long the war might last, the West has given Xi cause for pause. Putin’s naked aggression has gotten the West’s fur up, and at this point it does not look like this can end in Russia’s favor. Xi sees all this and applies it to the Taiwan situation. If he acts aggressively, he can expect a strong reaction by the same nations that are helping Ukraine. If Xi hoped to take advantage of the war in Europe to grab something in Asia or the Pacific, it looks as if his window of opportunity has closed.
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for 20 years. He currently resides on the mainland U.S.
BC Cook
