Super Typhoon Bavi remains on track to make its closest approach to the Mariana Islands on Monday morning, based on Marianas Variety News Desk’s analysis of the 1 p.m. ChST forecast guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, National Weather Service Guam, Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — four of the world’s leading tropical cyclone forecasting agencies
Current guidance indicates that Rota is expected to be closest to the forecast center, while Saipan, Tinian, and Guam also remain at risk for dangerous weather conditions as the typhoon passes through the region.
The closest-approach times and center-distance estimates shown in this graphic represent Marianas Variety News Desk’s best approximation after synthesizing and comparing the latest official forecast guidance from all four agencies. They are intended to help readers better understand the most likely timing of the storm’s closest approach to each island.
Forecasters continue to emphasize that even small shifts in the storm’s track could significantly change where the strongest winds, heaviest rainfall, and the most hazardous conditions occur. Actual timing, distance, and impacts may change as new forecast information becomes available.
Residents are urged to complete any remaining preparations now, continue monitoring official forecasts, and avoid unnecessary travel once weather conditions begin to deteriorate.
We’re strongest when we’re prepared.
Stay informed. Stay prepared. Stay safe.
Methodology: Published by Marianas Variety at 7 p.m. ChST on Saturday, July 4, 2026, using the latest 1 p.m. ChST forecast guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, National Weather Service Guam, Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The closest-approach times and center-distance estimates represent Marianas Variety News Desk’s synthesis of the latest official forecasts from these four agencies and are subject to change as updated advisories are issued.
