The votes cast in-country are hand counted, while an antiquated election law allows postal absentee ballots to arrive up to December 5, forbidding tabulation until after that date.
With the likelihood that thousands of votes will be cast by Marshall Islanders living in America, few if any of the races will be decided until the end of the first week of December when the postal ballots will be opened and tabulated.
The Electoral Administration mailed out more than 4,000 postal ballots to Marshall Islanders in the U.S. as of early last week, making this the first election that will likely be controlled by the off-shore vote. In the 2007 election, only about 600 postal ballots were counted.
“This year’s election will depend on the offshore votes (more than) in the history of any election ever,” predicts Cabinet Minister Mattlan Zackhras who is seeking his third term. The votes from the U.S. “will make it or break it for some of us running.”
Worry about recently announced United States government plans to curtail visa-free entry by islanders has helped stimulated the largest turnout of voters living offshore since Constitutional government began 32 years ago in this western Pacific nation.
Women candidates are also making strong bids to increase their numbers in parliament, which since 1979 have been limited to a single representative.
In the balance is current President Jurelang Zedkaia’s slim one-vote margin in the 33-member parliament. He has been president since late 2009 after a vote of no confidence ousted previous President Litokwa Tomeing.
Political parties active in the past three elections have fractured, with most candidates running this year as independents, although in the lead-up to Monday’s election a new group representing many of the government senators has formed. Traditional leaders who represent voters at Kwajalein Atoll, which hosts the U.S. Army’s Reagan Test Site, are making a big push to topple candidates aligned with Zedkaia, who is a Majuro-based paramount chief, to gain a majority when parliament meets to elect a new president in early January, 2012. The split among traditional chiefs is unprecedented when as recently as the 2007 election the same chiefs banded together to form a government that ended the eight-year reign of the first commoner president of this still tradition-dominated nation.
A U.S. government report on migration of islanders to the mainland, released last week in response to concerns of the U.S. Congress about the costs of supporting island migrants, estimates 13,000 Marshall Islanders are now living in America — about 20 percent of the total population.
Many believe that to be a serious undercount.
High unemployment, poor public schools and deteriorating health conditions in the country have spurred migration of over 1,000 islanders annually to the U.S. since the late 1990s as part of a treaty with the U.S. known as the Compact of Free Association that gives it long-term use of an important missile testing base at Kwajalein Atoll in return for funding and unrestricted access for islanders to live, work and study in the U.S.
“A substantial number of our citizens have migrated to the U.S. over the past few years, and there are issues (with the U.S. government) that impact our communities in the U.S.,” said Marshall Islands Foreign Minister John Silk last week. Silk said recent threats being made to impose regulations on migration privileges of islanders has prompted “our communities living in the U.S. to realize that their government’s actions and decisions back home are more important than ever before in their lives. We need to stay engaged and defend our rights and privileges under the Compact.”
Women candidates have been a strong force in the election campaign, making their strongest effort in national and local elections.
“There is a very high possibility that at least four women will get elected to Nitijela (parliament) and possibly two or three for mayoral posts this year,” said candidate Hilda Heine, who is seeking election from the rural atoll of Aur. “By far, women candidates run more organized and serious campaigns than they ever did in previous elections. I think they are a force to be reckoned with.”
The national parliament has never had more than one woman among its 33 members. “I won’t be surprised if most of (the women candidates) make it simply because people are now demanding change and most of the social problems we’re seeing can be addressed if we have more women making policy decisions for this nation,” said Zackhras.
