MVA Chairman Jerry Tan told the membership meeting yesterday that the tourism industry faces a “big question mark.”
“2009 is really full of uncertainties and in order to do a good forecast, you need to have basis and good assumptions,” he said in an interview. “Unfortunately, there are too many unknown factors and a lot of uncertainties for CNMI tourism.”
Tan noted the declining economies of the CNMI’s major tourism markets, Japan and South Korea, the currency fluctuations, the federalization of immigration and the possible removal of the Russia and China markets as a result of their non-inclusion in the U.S. visa waiver program.
He said these factors are beyond MVA’s control.
Tan said next year, they expect only 527,000 total air seat capacity from Japan and South Korea, compared to 588,000 in 2005.
Japan had a total air seat capacity of 492,000 in 2005 which drastically declined to 216,000 in 2007.
Next year, MVA projects a 315,000 air seat capacity from Japan.
For Korea, CNMI recorded 96,000 air seats in 2005 and 149,000 in 2007.
Next year, MVA projects only 212,000 seats from Korea.
“Year 2007 was the worst year for us based on the total air seat of 588,000 in 2005 down to only 365,000 two years after,” Tan told MVA’s membership meeting yesterday at the Saipan World Resort.
Total arrivals from Japan and Korea reached 419,000 in 2005 and 305,000 in 2007.
MVA expects 395,000 arrivals from the two countries next year.
MVA said in 2005, 340,000 Japanese tourists arrived, but this figure plunged to only 184,000 in 2007.
Japan Airlines pulled out from the CNMI in Oct. 2005.
MVA expects 236,000 Japanese arrivals next year.
In 2005, 79,000 Korean tourists visited the CNMI. The number increased to 121,000 in 2007 and MVA now projects that 159,000 Koreans will travel to the islands in 2009.
According to Tan, they expect a 75 percent airline load factor next year.
Japan’s load factor reached 69 percent in 2005 and 86 percent in 2007 while Korea recorded 82 percent in 2005 and 81 percent in 2007.
Tan said they’re pinning their hopes on Asiana Airlines’ commitment to continue servicing the islands.
On Dec. 19, Asiana will launch its maiden flight from Osaka bringing to 21 the number of its weekly flights to the CNMI.
“We do have air seats. The key point here is how to protect and increase these air seats,” Tan said. “We need to do a better job in promoting our destination and let the airlines build their confidence in us.”
MVA forecasts a total of 433,000 tourist arrivals in calendar year 2009: 236,000 from Japan; 159,000 from Korea; 9,000 from China; 4,000 from Russia; and 25,000 from other markets.
In calendar year 2008, MVA has so far recorded total arrivals of 377,000 from these markets.
