HAGÅTÑA (The Guam Daily Post) — The National Weather Service Guam Weather Forecast Office is monitoring a tropical system known as Invest 94W. The system is forecast to start becoming better organized this week as it travels slowly north out of western Micronesia. There is potential for a tropical-depression-strength storm to perhaps a lower-end tropical storm to pass through the region, according to NWS.
A release from Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense stated that strengthening monsoonal flow will persist through the end of the week. The tropical circulation will gradually strengthen as it passes through the Mariana Islands, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds developing, the release added.
“Fortunately, we’re not looking at another Typhoon Mawar for Guam and the (Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands), but this will be a large tropical disturbance pushing through the islands,” Landon Aydlett, the NWS warning coordination meteorologist, said Monday.
“It’s currently located south of Guam. … That’s going to be tracking duly northward, but the big push we’re going to be seeing in the coming days will be more showers, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds,” Aydlett added. “That’s going to be mid to later this week.”
According to Aydlett, the disturbance is still in its formative stages and is interacting with another tropical disturbance well to the north of the Marianas.
That actually bodes well for Guam and the CNMI as the two systems compete to form themselves, mitigating their development in the near term, Aydlett said.
“But this disturbance, as a larger feature, will be pushing over the islands and that’s where many people will be feeling these effects of stronger gusty winds, possibly hazardous seas and surf conditions for a period of time later this week, and a potential for heavy rainfall and some flash flooding concerns,” Aydlett said.
The GHS/OCD release stated that 4 to 8 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph may also be expected near any stronger showers or thunderstorms that develop.
Localized flooding will be possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas, the GHS/OCD added in the release, while flash flooding is possible in areas with the heaviest rainfall, especially near steep terrain.
Precautions
Residents and visitors are advised to take these precautions:
• Be mindful that heavy rains may hamper recovery efforts, and plan accordingly.
• Clear drainage areas and unblock clogged storm drains in your area.
• Stay up to date with the latest information.
• If driving, be alert for low visibility and slippery roads in heavy rain.
• Slow down where water is ponding on the road.
• “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.” Avoid walking or driving through floodwaters. Just 6 inches of moving water can knock you down, and 2 feet of water can sweep away your vehicle.
• Do not camp, park or hike along streams and rivers during heavy rainfall. These areas can flood quickly and with little warning.
“Definitely stay up to date with the latest weather conditions and forecasts. You can do that on our webpage at weather.gov/gum. In these tropical disturbances in these formative stages, things can and do evolve quickly. You can go from fair weather conditions with overcast to torrential rainfall in a very short period of time,” Aydlett said.
“This is going to be what we’re looking at for the coming days. It’s not going to be a complete deluge, … but it will be periodic. So the showers will come and go in episodes. And again, with locally heavy rainfall, they could cause some flash flooding concerns later this week.”
Landon Aydlett, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service Guam Weather Forecast Office, is pictured July 3, 2023, at his office at Tiyan.
